Knowing how to spot false favourites in horse racing is a very useful skill. Blindly backing favourites without doing your research can play havoc on your bankroll and expected profit margins. So, it can pay to be one step ahead.
This piece is about finding false favourites and the best way to deal with them. In addition to expert advice, we provide potentially profitable betting strategies and tips that can help you up your game.
A false favourite is a horse with the shortest market odds before a race – but one that usually lacks evidence to justify their price. Odds for these horses may drift considerably between ante-post betting prices prior to final declarations and Starting Prices (SP).
False favourites in horse racing happen for many reasons. For example, punters may blindly back tips from pundits which are circulated days before a race. This can lead to shortened odds via a sudden surge in bets from people piling in on the favourite. Further market reactions may see that initial price shorten again before drifting out.
On average, horse racing favourites tend to lose more races than they win, so market leaders don’t always translate into good bets. Assessing form, win percentage stats, and previous performance of favourites helps you make better decisions when taking a punt on UK online betting sites for the day’s equine action.
Identifying false favourites in horse racing is something that can be achieved with practice. However, if you’re only learning how to bet on horses, you’re unlikely to know what to look for. Consider the following advice when looking to take on the market leader:
You have two main options when you find false favourites – completely discount them from your betting options or lay them on a betting exchange. Here’s how to approach both scenarios.
There are times when the performance of favourites doesn’t match up to their odds. On the flip side, false favourites can win races. By nature, horse racing is a volatile sport – on average, favourites win one in three times.
Although this may be the case, it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t use strategies when placing your bets. Whether it’s a straight-up wager or as part of cover bets or system bets, your selections should always be well thought out, especially when such horses can harm your chances of success.
Although sometimes best avoided, you can use false favourites in profitable betting strategies. But only if the odds, betting market, and other factors make it feasible to lay them. Here are three strategy tips that will help.
Identifying false favourites in horse racing is not difficult once you know what to look for. Ruling out horses that don’t offer tangible value is part of that process. In much the same way as laying them for consistent profits on a betting exchange can also be.
Your chance of success in any race comes down to making educated and informed betting decisions. Putting in the hard yards with your research will help you increase your chances of seeing returns. We recommend using this data alongside a proven false favourites system rather than paying for a tipping service. Your own research and nous may be effective enough when making picks on mobile horse racing betting apps or using the desktop sites.
Spotting false favourites requires research and betting knowledge. Ultimately, it’s up to you to decide whether a horse in a handicap horse race or other event justifies the price you are happy to pay to back it. A good way to spot a false favourite is by measuring the horse and jockey, form, track record, and competition, against short-priced favourites odds. You can do this without buying annual memberships for tips clubs or lay betting services.
It is generally not a good idea to back false favourites in racing markets if you are aiming for consistent profits. There is enough advice about betting from gambling experts to suggest avoiding these horses. If you target the correct type of races and ensure your betting forecast and selections are well thought out, you could find some success in taking false favourites. But more often than not, they are costly fancies.
The winning average for favourites across all races is said to be around one in every three. But it really does depend on the type of race, whether the horse is odds on favourite at sports betting sites, and some other important factors and betting issues. If all these are not considered, you may wind up counting more costly mistakes than weekly profits.
Yes. Some bookies offer top “Not to Win” fixed odds markets for horse races. A real example of this is BoyleSports, who are one of the top sites for betting races in this way. It is worth pointing out that backing against a horse winning can be just as profitable as laying on a sports betting exchange. With an effective staking plan and a solid false favourites system, most punters should be capable of making some profit and enjoy more positive betting experiences.