Ahead of the big weekend of horse racing, here at Bettingsites.co.uk we home-in on the big handicap at Kempton Park – the Lanzarote Hurdle, which is run over 2m5f and carries a first prize of £52,030.
12 months ago, we saw the Dan Skelton yard win the race with West Balboa and the trainer is back for more this year with two runners – Langer Dan and Jay Jay Reilly. We’ve also seen the powerful Nicky Henderson yard win three of the last 11 renewals and they’ve got a strong hand again with Impose Toi and King Alexander amongst the 19 entries.
Lanzarote Hurdle Trends: Key Stats To Help Find The Kempton Winner
We’ve listed the key Lanzarote Hurdle trends below that will showcase the best profiles of past winners – meaning you can apply these to the 2024 runners and put history on your side when looking for the winner.
With ALL of the last 22 winners having won between 1-3 times over hurdles this is a decent trend that will put a line through several.
Those that still qualify are – Impose Toi, Nemean Lion, King Alexander, Good Luck Charm, Up For Parol, Hermino AA, Samuel Spade, Wonderwall, Jay Jay Reilly and Teddy Blue.
Meaning with a 100% strike-rate in the last 22 runnings, in theory, the 2024 Lanzarote Hurdle winner should come from one of the 10 horses listed above.
19 Of The Last 22 Winners Were Aged 7 Or Younger
If we then apply the big age trend to these 10 runners – that tells us 86% of the last 22 winners were also aged 7 or younger – we can put a line through – Jay Jay Reilly, Wonderwall, Up For Parol and Good Luck Charm.
Therefore, the horses left to focus on for the 2024 Lanzarote Hurdle are – Impose Toi, Nemean Lion, King Alexander, Hermino AA, Samuel Spade and Teddy Blue.
There is a final interesting trend to note that has been claiming jockeys do well in this race – winning six of the last 10. If this is to be upheld then Quinta Do Mar, Teddy Blue, Jay Jay Reilly, Serious Operator, Mothill and Good Luck Charm are the ones that will all be ridden by jockeys claiming a weight allowance.
- 22/22 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
- 19/22 – Aged 7 or younger
- 19/22 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
- 17/22 – Won exactly 2 times over hurdles
- 16/22 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
- 16/22 – Irish (10) or French (6) bred
- 16/22 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- 15/22 – Never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer
- 14/22 – Carried 10-11 or less
- 13/22 – From the top 3 in the betting
- 12/22 – Aged 6 years-old
- 10/22 – Favourites placed
- 9/22 – Won last race
- 8/22 – Raced at Kempton before (5 won)
- 5/22 – Favourites
- 4/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 10)
- 3/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
- Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
- Since 1980 (38 runnings) 36 winners have been aged 7 or younger
- A claiming jockey has won 6 of the last 10 runnings
- The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 14/1
Lanzarote Hurdle Tips: Gary Moore & Nicky Henderson To Dominate
So, if we are to believe the Lanzarote Hurdle trends, then these horses Impose Toi, Nemean Lion, King Alexander, Hermino AA, Samuel Spade and Teddy Blue – are the ones we’ve narrowed down our search to.
But of these five, the three that we are siding with are HERMINO AA, IMPOSE TOI and KING ALEXANDER.
The former hails from the Gary Moore yard that like to target his race – winning it in 1996, 1998 and 2007. We last saw him running third at Cheltenham behind an improving sort in White Rhino. With that only his fifth career run over hurdles we can expect more to come.
This 7 year-old is also yet to finish out of the top three over hurdles (2 wins) and after running over 3m last time this slight ease in trip (2m5f) will be right up his street.
The other two of interest both hail from the Nicky Henderson yard – Impose Toi and King Alexander. The Seven Barrows maestro has won three of the last 11 runnings of the Lanzarote, which the most recent Burrows Edge in 2020.
Nicky Henderson Has Won Three Of The Last 11 Lanzarote Hurdles
Impose Toi was last seen running a close second to his stablemate Luccia at Ascot in the Betfair Exchange Trophy and from his six runs over hurdles is yet to finish outside the top two. He’s also upped in trip here, but having won over this distance at Ludlow last May this isn’t a worry.
King Alexander makes up the trio 1-2-3 best bets having caught the eye winning at Exeter last time out. He’s up 10lbs for that so more needed but that also came off a 170-day break so should also be better for it. He’s also won over 2m4f before, and the services of Tom Cannon have been snapped up to ride.
Lanzarote Hurdle Tip: 1-2-3 Best Bets
1. HERMINO AA (e/w) with BetMGM
2. Impose Toi
3. King Alexander
WATCH: Hermino AA Staying On Well At Cheltenham To Take Third
Recent Lanzarote Hurdle Winners
2023 – WEST BALBOA (12/1) (watch below)
2022 – COBBLERS DREAM (10/1)
2021 – BOREHAM BILL (66/1)
2020 – BURROWS EDGE (5/1)
2019 – BIG TIME DANCER (16/1)
