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tipshaydock and taunton tips trends for itv racing on saturday 30th december 2023

Haydock and Taunton Tips & Trends For ITV Racing On Saturday 30th December 2023

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Angels Breath is among Paddy Power Gold Cup tips for Cheltenham

It’s the last Saturday in 2023 and with that the final weekend of horse racing action this year. We’ve top action at Newbury that includes the Challow Novices Hurdle and a chance to see some potential stars of the future. However, the ITV racing cameras are also heading to Haydock and Taunton to show three races across the two tracks.

So, here at Bettingsites.co.uk we thought we’d look at these three ITV races at these two tracks and pinpoint some key trends to apply to each contest and also give you our best bets.

Haydock Tips: Last Fling The Feature At The Lancashire Track

  • 3m4½f (3m4f97y) Betfred Last Fling Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145)

The top UK betting sites are likely to send the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Collectors Item off as the Last Fling favourite and it’s not hard to see why. This 6 year-old has time on his side and after staying on well over 3m last time at Sandown (4th) this step up to 3m 4 1/2f looks set to suit. The handicapper has also dropped him a pound and with just three career runs over fences here should be a lot more improvement to come. One for the shortlist.

However, in a tight looking renewal, cases can be made for them all, including recent second East Street and Fantastikas. But, this is a race the Venetia Williams yard love to target – winning it twice in the last seven runnings – so a chance is taken on their ROBYNDZONE (e/w).

This 9 year-old actually ran in the same race Collectors Item finished fourth in at Sandown, when falling at the 10th. The horse was still in the mix at the time and having won well the time before at Ludlow has already shown a winning habit this term.

Add in that the Venetia Williams yard remain in great form – operating at a 34% strike-rate at the moment, plus also boast an impressive 24% record with their chasers at Haydock, then these are further pluses.

Finally, it’s also interesting that this race has been won by a claiming jockey in three of the last seven runnings, so Ned Fox, who takes off 5lbs, to give this horse a featherweight will help. The other claiming riders in the race are on Fantastikas and Fortescue.

Key Last Fling Handicap Chase Trends

  • 7/7 – Won over 3m+ fences before
  • 7/7 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
  • 5/7 – Unplaced in last race
  • 5/7 – Aged between 7-10
  • 4/7 – Irish bred
  • 3/7 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
  • 3/7 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
  • 3/7 – Favourites
  • 2/7 – Trained by Venetia Williams
  • Trainer Venetia Williams has a 24% record with her chasers at the track

    Back ROBYNDZONE (E/W) at 11/1 with BetMGM

Taunton Tips:

  • 2.10 – Byerley Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+) 2m½f ITV4

Trainer Paul Nicholls has a good record in this race – winning it three times since 2014. He runs Larchmont Lass, who looks to be going the right way but was well beaten into second (24 lengths) the last day so is overlooked with improvement needed.

This looks a big of a shootout between the Twiston-Davies runner Casa No Mento, who is the top-rated, and Queens Gamble. Both come here having won their last two in eye-catching fashion and look promising mares in the making.

Both yards are in good form too and have been amongst the winners in recent weeks. However, despite being rated 6lbs lower than Casa No Mento, the Harry Derham runner QUEENS GAMBLE is the pick. She won a better race than Casa last time at Kempton and with that also coming off a 196-day break is taken to have also improved for it having also raced a tad green that day.

It should be a good battle between then, but Queens Gamble is taken to improve past Casa No Mento and continue her upward curve.

  • 9/9 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
  • 9/9 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
  • 8/9 – Won between 1-2 times (hurdles) before
  • 8/9 – Won last race
  • 7/9 – Favourites placed in the top 2
  • 6/9 – Irish bred
  • 4/9 – Aged 5 years-old
  • 4/9 – Favourites
  • 3/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
  • 2/9 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
  • 2/9 – Ridden by Harry Cobden

Back Queens Gamble at Evs with BetMGM

  • 2.45 – Racing TV 100% Profits Back To Racing Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-130) ITV4

Just the five runners here but it’s another tight little race that they all have claims in. The Hobbs/White (21%) and Jane Williams (19%) yards both have decent records with their hurdlers at the track – they run Ballydisco and Moka De Vassey.

We’ve another Harry Derham runner here too in Game Winner as he’ll be looking for a Taunton ITV races double. While the Jeremy Scott-trained King Of The Lake has a consistent profile and should get involved too.

But a chance is taken on the Fergal O’Brien runner HURRICANE HARVEY, with the yard having won this race in 2021 and also coming here with their horses in great form (29%).

Yes, 12st makes life hard but connections are jocking-up Jack Hogan to take off 3lbs which helps offset some of his big burden. The horse is also eased a tad in grade having been running in much better races at Cheltenham and Newbury the last twice. While the last time he was at this level saw him run a close third at Uttoxeter off a 2lb higher mark.

He also ran the improved Broadway Boy to just 1/2 a length back in April and with that horse having franked the form many times since a repeat of that effort would give him every chance.

  • Just 5 previous runnings
  • 5/5 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
  • 4/5 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
  • 4/5 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
  • 2/5 – Favourites
  • Trainer Hobbs/While have a 21% strike-rate with their hurdlers at the track
  • Jockey David Noonan is just 5 from 76 (7%) riding over hurdles at the track
  • Jockey Paul O’Brien is 0 from 29 riding over hurdles at the track

Back Hurricane Harvey at 5/1 with BetMGM

Andy Newton
Andy Newton
Andy Newton

Andy Newton is a well-known horse racing and sports betting writer that specialises in using key trends and stats to help find winners and unique betting approaches. Over the years, Andy has built up many industry contacts, including with some of the leading horse racing stables in the UK with his time running the Trainers-Quotes site and has also ghost-written for former top jockey Richard Dunwoody. Andy is also the former sports betting editor of odds comparison site Easyodds and JuiceStorm and appeared on many betting podcasts for MatchBook and BetBright. You can also find his views via his monthly Racing Ahead magazine column, which he’s held a slot for over 10 years. Now a regular on Bettingsites.co.uk too giving his views, trends and tips mainly on horse racing and football - so if there's a stat to be unearthed and it's a sport, Andy is sure to find an interesting betting angle. Here’s a look at a sampling of where Andy’s expertise has been mentioned: Racing Ahead Magazine Trainers-Quotes JuiceStorm GeeGeez

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