This is our in-depth guide to transfer betting. This article will reveal everything that you need to know about the subject, with sportsbook reviews, explanation of markets and betting tips, all included. Let’s start by revealing our favourite sites for betting on transfers.
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Here is a little more information on our recommended sites for placing a bet on transfers.
We’re now going to give you some in-depth reviews of our favourite sites for this type of betting.
bet365 are one of the top choice for football betting. This long-established online bookmaker, has a brilliant all-round product, but they are of course devoted to the beautiful game, with a wide range of football promos and markets available. With extras such as live streaming and betting tips on offer, bet365 have everything that a football fan needs.
This includes a deep range of betting markets concerning transfers. Go to the Specials section of the Outright markets and you will find a wide number of transfer related markets. At the time of our review we found eleven, which included English-based players such as Declan Rice, Harry Maguire and James Ward-Prowse, along with players from abroad, such as Lionel Messi, Neymar and Victor Osimhen. In each market there were a good amount of teams that you could bet on the player being registered with, at the time that the next transfer window ends, with competitive odds.
What we like:
What we don’t:
Founded back in 2012, BetUK has become well of the best known names on the betting scene. As their name suggests, their focus is geared towards the United Kingdom, which of course means a focus on football. There’s plenty of markets available and strong odds, with features such as Bet Builder and Cash Out.
The markets for betting on transfers are not the easiest to find, but once we’d located them, we were pleased with the number on offer. Though it’s fair to describe BetUK as a British-focused bookie, they actually had more markets covering the transfers of foreign players. They included the Serie A stars Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Rasmus Hojlund.
What we like:
What we don’t:
Paddy Power was founded back in 1988 in Ireland and has gone on to become one of the biggest bookmakers in the world. Known for their often controversial and humorous marketing campaigns, they also deliver with their product. They’ve got every feature that a football fan could want, including betting tips and live streaming. The football coverage goes in-depth in terms of markets and has some of the most competitive odds around.
This is true of the markets centred on players’ next clubs. We found nine markets when we made our review, which included international legends like Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo and plenty of English players. Being an Irish bookie, Paddy Power also had odds on the future of the Brighton and Republic of Ireland striker Evan Ferguson.
What we like:
What we don’t:
Another well-known bookmaker that excels with football betting is BetVictor. From a generous welcome offer when you sign up, you’re in safe hands with this sportsbook, which features the free football prediction game Pick6. This is a site rich in features, with good odds and solid market depth.
That’s evident in the Transfer Specials section, where there were ten player transfers listed. This included some of the big names from the England team such as Harry Kane and Declan Rice, but also markets concerning the futures of players that we didn’t see covered elsewhere. You can bet on the future clubs of players like Moises Caicedo, Ollie Watkins and Wilfried Zaha, which was nice to see.
What we like:
What we don’t:
Betfair have a unique product, offering you access to the biggest betting exchange available, with a well-stocked sportsbook also on the menu. The exchange is great for betting on football and you’ll get bigger odds there than you will find at even the biggest bookies, with the potential for real bargains to be found, with fellow punters laying the bets, rather than professional oddsmakers.
Unfortunately, we didn’t find any transfer specials on the exchange, although there were plenty of managerial markets covered. Yet with Betfair you are essentially signing up for two accounts and their dedicated sportsbook compares with the best. We found nine transfers covered, featuring a good mix of domestic and foreign players.
What we like:
What we don’t:
Having seen our list of recommended sites and read our reviews, you may be curious as to what criteria we use to make our rankings. Here are some of the factors that we consider to be most important.
Transfers have long been an important part of football. If a club seeks a new player in a certain position, they can look to reach agreement with another club, in order to buy one of their squad members. Sometimes a player will be out of contract and able to leave their club for nothing and choose to join a new team.
Over the decades, transfer fees have steadily risen. Players can now make transfer moves worth tens and even hundreds of millions. The football media landscape is dominated by transfer news, as it attracts big audiences. Most football fans can see deficiencies in their team and the news of a new player being bought to solve a certain problem, is an exciting one.
With transfers dominating the football news agenda, it was somewhat inevitable that bookmakers would create markets, which allow punters to bet on the outcomes of transfers. Now, the biggest and best bookies for football betting, feature markets for potential transfers, where you can bet on which team a player will be signed with, by a certain date.
For the majority of a football season, clubs are prohibited from signing and registering new players. There is a winter transfer window that gives clubs a short period to buy players mid-season. Then there is a summer window, which starts at the end of the season and ends during the opening weeks of the next season.
The English winter transfer window in the 2022-23 season started on 1st January and ended on the 31st January. Once the season ends, the summer window will open on 10th June and run through to the 1st September.
Sometimes there can be slight differences between the dates of transfer windows, across different countries. Clubs are able to negotiate deals in-between windows, but they can’t formally sign and register the players involved, until the windows reopen.
If you’ve never bet on transfers before, you may be wondering how to go about it. We’re going to take you through the process.
Choose your bookmaker. For this example we are using bet365. Click on the yellow button marked ‘Join’, which is in the top right hand corner of the homepage. Register your details and accept the terms and conditions.
Now go to the banking section and add some funds. You’ll need to choose a payment method and add your relevant details. Decide how much money you want to put into your account and confirm the payment.
Go to the Soccer section. Click on Outrights and then scroll right down to the bottom of that sub-section and click on Specials. This will bring up all the various markets concerning transfers.
Choose the market that you want to bet on. Click on the selection that you want to back, choose your stake and confirm the bet.
In this section we’re going to take a look at some of the biggest transfers that could take place over the coming months. At the time of writing, these are some of the transfer betting specials that you’re likely to see available at sportsbooks.
Bellingham is the biggest young English talent and one of the most promising players in the world. At just 17-years-old he made the brave decision to leave Birmingham City and move to Germany to play for Borussia Dortmund. He has subsequently become a regular for both club and country and all while still a teenager. Bellingham will turn 20 this summer and he may do so at a new team. His contract expires in 2025 and the Bundesliga giants are expected to cash in on the player, with some of the world’s top clubs competing to sign a player who is likely to move for well over £100million. Here are the current prices.
Jude Bellingham’s Next Club | Odds |
Real Madrid | 1/10 |
Stay at Borussia Dortmund | 9/1 |
Manchester City | 10/1 |
Liverpool | 25/1 |
Manchester United | 33/1 |
Newcastle | 40/1 |
Arsenal | 40/1 |
Chelsea | 40/1 |
The England captain could be on the move this summer. Kane’s contract at Tottenham expires in the summer of 2024. Spurs are trying to persuade their record goalscorer to extend, but if they can’t they may well choose to cash in on a player that will turn 30 this year. Manchester United are in need of a striker and are contenders, while some of the biggest clubs from abroad may also fancy adding Kane to their roster. Whether Kane would be keen to leave England at a time when he is honing in on Alan Shearer’s all-time Premier League goalscoring record, is another matter. Here are the latest odds.
Harry Kane’s Next Club | Odds |
Stay at Tottenham | 6/5 |
Manchester United | 7/4 |
Chelsea | 14/1 |
Bayern Munich | 20/1 |
PSG | 22/1 |
Newcastle | 25/1 |
Juventus | 30/1 |
Real Madrid | 40/1 |
Manchester City | 50/1 |
Mbappe is arguably the best player in the world right now. So far, he has spent his entire career in France, first with Monaco and then since 2017, with Paris Saint-Germain. He was expected to leave the French capital to join Real Madrid in the summer of 2022, but instead extended his contact at PSG to 2025. With a relatively short amount of time before that contract extension runs out, there will be constant speculation regarding Mbappe’s future. Here are the current prices for his club from next season.
Kylian Mbappe’s Next Club | Odds |
Manchester United | 8/1 |
Real Madrid | 8/1 |
Newcastle | 14/1 |
Manchester City | 16/1 |
Liverpool | 20/1 |
Bayern Munich | 25/1 |
Mbappe may well stay at PSG for the time being, but one player who seems certain to leave is Messi. The Argentine’s contract expires in the summer and he is set to move from France. Messi could decide to play in a less competitive league, with clubs in Saudi Arabia and USA interested in his services. Yet having recently won the World Cup with his country, there will also be top European clubs who will be interested in signing the little genius. Here are the latest odds on Messi’s next club.
Lionel Messi’s Next Club | Odds |
Any Saudi Premier League team | 1/3 |
Barcelona | 9/4 |
Manchester City | 11/1 |
Inter Miami | 16/1 |
Chelsea | 33/1 |
Bayern Munich | 40/1 |
Manchester United | 40/1 |
Newcastle | 50/1 |
Now we’re going to take a look at some of the different markets involving transfers that are available at bookmakers.
Transfer window betting can often go right down to the wire. With both buying and selling clubs eager to establish the best deals possible, transfer negotiations can go on for weeks and even months. Very often, even the biggest deals of a transfer window, occur on deadline day.
The two transfer deadline days each year are a popular part of football calendar. They are covered extensively on TV and in the media, with deals getting over the line, right up to the closing seconds. Below, we have highlighted some of the most successful bits of deadline day business and also, some of the worst deals done on deadline day.
Successes:
Failures:
The Premier League is the richest football league in the world. In the summer of 2022, Premier League clubs spent £1.9billion in the transfer market. They then spent another £815million in the 2023 January window. Unsurprisingly, Premier League transfer betting is the most popular type that you will find at bookmakers.
Ahead of the summer window of 2023, here’s some thoughts on the past transfer activity of the Premier League’s biggest spenders and how they are likely to operate in the future.
For some years during the managerial reign of Arsene Wenger, the Gunners ran a tight ship. While they were building the Emirates Stadium, the club couldn’t match the spending of other big Premier League clubs. This resulted in the team being less competitive on the pitch and a relatively long absence from the Champions League. With Arsenal now back in the Champions League under Mikel Arteta, the Londoners may well now compete for a level of player, that has been denied to them in recent seasons.
No club spent more money than Chelsea in 2022-23, but they did not invest their funds wisely and suffered a disastrous season. After years of heavy investment from former owner Roman Abramovich, the club were bought by a consortium led by Todd Boehly in 2022. A summer spending spree in which the club bought established stars such as Raheem Sterling and Kalidou Koulibaly, was followed by a January window which saw Chelsea change tact and invest in young players. Another busy window seems set to come, as the Blues look to trim their bloated squad and address key positional issues.
Liverpool’s success over recent years has very much been based upon a successful transfer strategy. They sold players such as Luis Suarez and Philippe Coutinho for huge profits, which allowed them to reinvest in their squad. The COVID-19 crisis hampered this habit and Liverpool’s squad has grown stale. It seems like a big revamp is planned for the summer, with Jurgen Klopp having confirmed that the club pulled out of an expensive deal for Jude Bellingham, due to the large number of players they need to add.
Manchester United were the dominant force in English football under Alex Ferguson. Since the Scot left the club, they have struggled to recreate past glories, despite some heavy spending. Now managed by Erik ten Hag, the club seem to be back on the right path and United’s transfer activity has largely been successful. The Dutch coach will want to further strengthen his squad this summer, but that desire could be complicated by the fact that the Glazer family are looking to sell the club and a deal has yet to be agreed at the time of writing.
For many years Newcastle fans were left frustrated by the frugality of Mike Ashley’s reign as owner. In 2021, a Saudi-led consortium bought the club and they instantly became one of the richest in the world. The spending in the subsequent transfer windows has not been as lavish as one might have imagined, yet thanks to the canny management of Eddie Howe, the team has flourished. With the club now back in Europe after a long absence, the next stage of Newcastle’s development is likely to be accelerated.
With fees steadily getting bigger, the record for a transfer involving a UK club, has regularly been broken. Below, we detail the record UK transfer fee, since the £1,000,000 mark was first broken back in 1979.
An interesting contrast to the UK transfer record progression, is to look at how the world transfer record has progressed over the years. We start in 1957, when the record was just shy of the £100,000 mark.
Now it’s time to give you a few tips for betting on transfers. Follow this advice to boost your profitability.
If you’re betting on transfers, it pays to put in the research. Don’t believe everything that you read, as transfer content is big business that draws in readers, so publishers are not always too concerned as to whether their information is accurate or not. More important is looking into the type of players that clubs need to recruit during a window and their likely budget. That will give you an idea of the deals that are possible.
If you go to the average transfer section of a bookmaker, you will find the same clubs are favourites in several markets. Sometimes this is the case in markets which feature a number of footballers that play in the same position. If Manchester United are favourites to sign five strikers, it’s obvious that they will not sign all of them. Use your judgement to decide on the players that they are most likely to target. If you’re right, you will be able to take advantage in the other markets.
If there is a player with several clubs chasing their signature, then it is possible for you to lock in a profit. Markets can be volatile with different favourites emerging over the course of a summer. With prices fluctuating, you can get yourself in a position where you have backed clubs, that then trade at much shorter prices. If Cash Out is available at your chosen bookmaker, you might get an offer that allows you to take an early profit, before the transfer has actually been settled.
We hope that you enjoyed our guide to transfer betting. As you will have seen, there are some great options when it comes to placing bets on football transfers. Of all of our recommended sites in this category, bet365 is our absolute favourite.
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